Today is the 10th anniversary of the Oslo Accords designed to bring about an end to Israeli-Palestinian conflict. And I'd have to call them a complete failure. And utter and complete failure. I'd also say there is no common ground for an agreement. I don't think there will be peace until one side or the other "loses" or gives up. Unless enough external pressure can be brought to bear on either side this thing is never going to end.
For the Israelis that means the U.S. The current administration will never abandon Israel. Future administrations are less certain. Israel has been one of our staunchest allies and I'd hate to see us leave them to the wolves.
For the Palenstinians that means the U.N and the Arab countries. They are funding the Palestinian Authority, Arafat and terrorist groups like Hamas. As long as Arafat is in power the PA won't cave in. As long as Hamas has funding to run terrorist operations they won't give in. Hamas has stated again and again that their goal is to liberate all of what they call "Palestine" -- which means all of Israel. As long as countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt continue to give funds to Hamas, they will have no incentive to give up.
I'm sure Israel looks back to the day they allowed Arafat to run in "elections" in the Palestinian as a horrible day. As a result over 1,000 Israelis have died in suicide attacks. How would America react if we lost that many? Would the world expect us to turn the other cheek? How did America react when that happened? Afghanistan and Iraq are under new "management". Is it time for Israel to try the same approach? I think so.
So where does that leave us? More of the same. A couple of suicide bombings every months for next few years. Some months more and some months less. Arafat has already destroyed the Palestinian economy.
I see two ways out of this. First, Israel expels Arafat and most of the Fatah leadership. It will be politically ugly and cost Israeli lives in the short run. Israel then goes back to their old strategy of running the West Bank and Gaza. They put local governments in place and begin to give them autonomy. Hopefully the Palestinians will realize they are better off under this approach. They will have jobs, water, food, rule of law and free speech. Maybe then they will have earned the right to create their own country.
The second approach is uglier and longer. The regime change in Iraq starts the Middle East countries toppling. Iran is close. They would probably push toward some type of democracy. Saudi Arabia is ripe for the picking also. Unfortunately they are more likely to end up in a religious theocracy and take Iran's place as a sponsor of terrorism. These countries falling should gradually eliminate funding for Hamas and the related groups. Not any time soon though.
The only wild-card is Arafat. He may want to stay in power so badly he'll make a deal to save himself. I don't think anything happens until he's gone though.